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Bitcoin Power Law Fair Value

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BTC price vs power-law fair value (log scale)

What this is

The Bitcoin power law is the observation that price has tracked a straight line on log-price-vs-log-time axes across Bitcoin's entire history: price ∝ (days since genesis)ⁿ, with n ≈ 5.7. We fit it by least squares over every day of price history; the support and resistance bands are the 1st and 99th percentiles of the fit's log-residuals — so they're empirical, not hand-drawn. Everything here is computed from our own node's price history and shown with its exponent, R², and t₀ so you can judge the fit yourself.

Where it could break

It is ultimately curve-fitting a single history and extrapolating — a high R² on log-log axes is easy to achieve, so goodness-of-fit is not proof of predictive power. It's sensitive to the choice of t₀ and the fitting window, and there is no guaranteed mechanism. Treat it as a descriptive lens, not a forecast.

Informational, not financial advice. · Explore the full interactive corridor + projections →